This is the first in a four-part series by Better Wyoming about our state’s affordable housing shortage and what might be done about it.
Buying a house has been part of the middle-class American Dream for as long as middle-class Americans have dreamed.
But in Wyoming in 2024, that dream is simply not possible for many working people.
According to a Wyoming Community Development Authority report from this year, there is nowhere in the state where a family earning their counties’ median wage can afford a typical home in their community.
Not a single county.
“This situation began in Teton County, because of the historically high cost of houses there and lack of available land to develop new homes, but now it’s everywhere across the state,” Scott Hoversland, executive director of the Wyoming Community Development Authority, told Better Wyoming.
“This situation began in Teton County, but now it’s everywhere across the state.”
Twenty-five years ago, the average cost of a house in Wyoming was under $100,000. According to Hoversland—and, as anyone who has scrolled through Zillow knows—the average price is now approaching a half a million dollars.
The most obvious result of this problem is that people are spending too much of their paychecks on mortgages and rent. Roughly 10 percent of Wyoming households allocate more than 30 percent of their earnings to housing.
But the problem compounds others that the state already faced—notably its “brain drain.”
The lack of good-paying jobs has long encouraged our young homegrown families to leave. But now even those who have jobs and want to stay are increasingly unable to, simply because they cannot afford a place to live.
In a new four-part series, Better Wyoming dives into:
- the underlying causes of our state’s housing crisis
- the crisis’ impact on our communities
- solutions Wyoming lawmakers have already tried or proposed
- and approaches that have—or have not—worked in other states
As housing prices continue to go up in Wyoming, one thing is certain: The problem is not going to fix itself.
Newcomers price out working Wyomingites
Wyoming is far from the only state experiencing a shortage of affordable housing, and it is certainly not alone in the Mountain West.
But there are some factors that make our problem distinct.
One is demographic. Wyoming’s population is not growing exceptionally fast, but since 2020, the state has added roughly 2,000 people per year—that’s a net amount, factoring in people who have left versus those who have arrived.
The people moving to Wyoming tend to be not only older than average, but they also tend to be much wealthier.
In 2020, the average household income in Wyoming was $92,000. Meanwhile, the people moving into the state earn on average nearly $140,000. That might be from a remote job or, more often, from dividends on stocks, retirement, and investments.
Newcomers outbid locals and pay cash for homes, pricing working Wyoming people out of the market.
In any case, it’s more than 40 percent more than current Wyomingites make.
Newcomers who arrive from Colorado or California or Texas with money in the bank often outbid locals and pay cash for homes, pricing many working Wyoming people out of the market.
Unsurprisingly, people leaving Wyoming earn an average of $72,000 per household—not enough to afford a decent place to live here.
Stuck homeowners and short-term rentals drive down housing stock
Anyone looking for a house to buy in Wyoming in recent years has noticed that there just have not been many available.
This is in part because the high cost of housing creates a cycle in which homeowners become stuck, which means that fewer houses go onto the market.
Established families who would normally be ready to advance from their starter homes into something bigger are instead staying put. This is due to the rising cost of housing in general, but also because their current mortgage interest rates are far lower than what they would get on a new loan.
As a result, there are fewer starter homes in Wyoming for young families or individuals to purchase.
This problem is compounded in communities where large numbers of second-homeowners leave their properties vacant or rent them out to tourists via websites like Airbnb.
As the laws of supply and demand go, this shortage in supply drives up costs even more.
Building affordable homes isn’t profitable
Of course, one answer to a shortage of housing is to simply build more houses. But it has become difficult for developers to turn a profit on homes that would be affordable to the average Wyoming resident.
The cost of construction materials ballooned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though materials prices have now leveled off, contractors say they are still far higher than four years ago.
Lonnie Holmes, general manager of Bloedorn Lumber in Buffalo, told the Buffalo Bulletin a starter home that might have cost $130 per square foot before the pandemic costs at least twice as much today.
Holmes says few contractors take on smaller residential projects because the profit margin is simply too low.
“When you’re talking about affordable housing and squeezing every drop of juice from the lemon you can, you're doing all you can to accomplish the task at hand,” he said.
This means that, even as demand goes up for typical family houses—where a teacher or a plumber or a firefighter might live—the supply is not increasing at pace.
Zoning fixes only go so far
Whenever a problem dealing with money and affordability comes up, money is often part of the solution.
But Wyoming has historically never spent much public money on housing, and current lawmakers do not seem interested in changing course.
Officials have, however, been able to focus on another part of the housing puzzle that doesn’t cost much: zoning.
According to a Harvard study, Wyoming towns and counties tend to have more restrictive zoning requirements than they should. Zoning regulations can, for instance, prohibit the construction of duplexes or apartments in certain areas, even though they would allow developers to build homes that people can actually afford.
Lawmakers at the state and local level who want to increase affordable housing have seized on the zoning issue. But most acknowledge that public investment in the problem—particularly in infrastructure like sewer and water—will also be required for any actual progress to take place.
More growth on the way
The Wyoming Community Development Authority estimates that the state’s current trend of slow growth made up mostly of older, wealthier people will continue through the end of the decade.
By 2030, it estimates that the state will need to add between 20,700 and 38,600 housing units, including rentals. Wyoming is not on pace to meet these demands.
As a result, wealthy newcomers looking to retire with Wyoming’s low taxes will be able to afford homes just fine, but the rest of us will continue to feel the squeeze or simply just leave.